Nach ihrer heutigen Sitzung hat die EZB signalisiert, dass sie den Leitzins noch lange bei nur 1,0% belassen wird. Vermutlich wird sie das für September anstehende einjährige Refinanzierungsgeschäft zu nur 1,0% ausschreiben. Gegen höhere Leitzinsen sprechen die Rezession und sinkende Kerninflationsraten. Das Hauptargument gegen niedrige Zinsen sind die zuletzt deutlich gestiegenen Frühindikatoren.Die EZB dürfte ihren Leitzins bis weit in das kommende Jahr bei 1,0% belassen und ihn nicht früh erhöhen:
1. Die EZB hat ihr Kommuniqué kaum verändert und den Leitzins von 1,0% weiterhin als „angemessen“ bezeichnet.
2. Vor kurzem hat die EZB zum ersten Mal ein Refinanzierungsgeschäft für zwölf Monate abgeschlossen. Weil die Banken für die geliehenen Mittel einen Zins von nur 1,0% zahlen mussten, haben sie sich mit einem Rekordbetrag von 442 Mrd. Euro eingedeckt. Kaum eine Bank hat noch Bedarf an Zentralbankgeld, weshalb das Handelsvolumen am Interbankenmarkt für Tagesgeld sehr niedrig ist. Trotzdem ist die EZB „glücklich“ über das Resultat des einjährigen Refinanzierungsgeschäfts. Vermutlich wird sie den für September anstehenden, zweiten Einjahrestender nicht mit einem Zinsaufschlag versehen, sondern die Mittel weiter zu 1,0% anbieten. Denn sie möchte vermeiden, dass dies als ein Signal für einen höheren Hauptrefinanzierungssatz missverstanden wird. Wahrscheinlicher als ein Zinsaufschlag ist, dass sie das Volumen des Geschäfts beschränkt.
3. Die Kerninflation (Inflation ohne Energie, Nahrungsmittel, Tabak) ist bereits auf 1,5% gefallen. Der rezessionsbedingte Rückgang der Lohnsteigerungsraten wird die Kerninflation im kommenden Jahr wohl auf unter 1,0% drücken. Das stärkt die Position derer im EZB-Rat, die die Leitzinsen lange bei 1,0% belassen wollen.
4. Irgendwann wird die Krise abgeklungen sein und die EZB müsste die reichlich gewährte Liquidität wieder einsammeln. Aber diesem Thema hat die EZB im Kommuniqué nur einen Satz gewidmet. Auch dies spricht gegen eine frühe Leitzinserhöhung.
Es gibt allerdings auch ein starkes Argument gegen niedrige Leitzinsen: Alle auf Umfragen basierenden Konjunkturindikatoren weisen mittlerweile nach oben, vermutlich dürfte die Euro-Wirtschaft im Herbst aufhören zu schrumpfen. Der nachlassende Konjunkturstress schwächt die Position derjenigen im EZB-Rat, die für noch niedrigere Leitzinsen plädieren.
Dr. Jörg Krämer, Chefvolkswirt, Commerzbank AG
27 Kommentare zu “EZB: De facto-Zinserhöhung im September?”
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Bill Bonner schreibt am 30. Juni 2009: “Diese Illusion ist so groß, dass man sie kaum erkennen kann – dass eine Wirtschaft… selbst eine, an der Milliarden Menschen beteiligt sind, die hunderte unterschiedlicher Sprachen in unterschiedlichen Ländern und 24 verschiedenen Zeitzonen sprechen… erfolgreich von einer Gruppe von Hochstaplern geführt werden kann, denen das größte finanzielle Ereignis in der Geschichte entgangen ist. Es wird lange dauern, ehe diese Illusion zerstört ist. Und es wird eine unterhaltsame Show für uns sein.”
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