Nun hat die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) unter ihrem Präsidenten Mario Draghi erneut zugeschlagen und die Banken mit Liquidität überschwemmt. So weit sich das überblicken lässt, nehmen die Märkte es lau bis freundlich auf. Große Sprünge sind freilich nicht zu erwarten, weil die Aktion lange angekündigt war. Außerdem haben die Märkte im Vorfeld der Einigung auf ein neues Rettungspaket für Griechenland ohnehin ausgiebig genug Optimismus gespielt, so dass danach wieder mehr Ernüchterung angesagt ist.
Vergleicht man die EZB mit den Notenbanken in den USA oder in Großbritannien, so fällt sofort die Parallele ins Auge. In allen Fällen geht es darum, Geld ins System zu pumpen – damit das System nicht kollabiert. Der amerikanischen Notenbank (Fed) hält man dabei gerne vor, es handele sich nur um Doping für die Wirtschaft, also eine Strategie, die auf Dauer krank macht. Und wie sieht es in Europa aus? Hier haben wir ein Doping der anderen Art.
Die Angelsachsen kaufen direkt Staatsanleihen auf. So wird direkt Liquidität geschaffen – der Kaufpreis für diese Papiere wird quasi mit gedrucktem Geld bezahlt. Die EZB macht es anders: Sie verleiht zu günstigen Konditionen Geld an die Banken. Auch hier wird Geld quasi gedruckt und an die Banken weitergeben. So weit laufen beide Operationen also parallel.
Unterschiede gibt es zunächst auf der formalen und der politischen Seite. Die EZB darf laut Statuten direkt ohnehin den Staaten keine Anleihen abkaufen. Sie tut es aber indirekt, sie kauft die Papiere auf dem Zweitmarkt – unabhängig von der heutigen Aktion und zusätzlich dazu. Auch politisch legt die EZB sehr viel mehr Wert als andere Notenbanken darauf, von den Regierungen unabhängig zu sein. Das muss sie auch: Denn es ist schon schwer genug, eine vernünftige Geldpolitik für einen einzigen Staaten zu machen. Wenn es gleich mehr als 20 Staaten sind, würde ein zu starker Einfluss der Regierungen unweigerlich dazu führen, dass jede einzelne davon versucht, sich mit reichlich mit Notenbankgeld zu versorgen, während alle anderen das Risiko einer möglicherweise daraus folgenden Inflation mittragen. Daher ist die de facto enge Abstimmung zwischen Regierung und Notebank, die es in den USA gibt, für die Euro-Zone kein Modell. Aus diesem Grund sieht es für die EZB auch viel besser aus, einen Teil des Geldsegens indirekt über den Bankenapparat ins System zu schleusen.
Der Nachteil der EZB-Methode liegt auf der Hand: Die Banken bekommen so die Möglichkeit, schnellen Gewinn zu machen. Denn der EZB-Kredit ist billig, und zumindest in schwachen Ländern wie Italien haben Staatsanleihen mittlerweile sehr hohe Renditen. Italienische Banken können sich also mit billig mit europäischem Geld vollsaugen und es sehr rentierlich bei der eigenen Regierung anlegen. Aber vielleicht ist Draghi dieser Effekt sogar ganz recht – nicht, weil er Italiener ist: Die Banken in den schwachen Staaten stehen im Ansehen der Kapitalmärkte ohnehin schlecht da, zusätzlicher Gewinn kann dieses Bild nur verbessern.
Ein Vorteil der EZB-Methode ist: Märkte und Banken werden nicht völlig ausgeschaltet. Denn die Banken müssen ja immer noch überlegen, wie viel Risiko sie mit dem geliehenen Geld eingehen wollen – sie können dieses Problem trotz der lockenden Gewinnspanne nicht einfach ausblenden. Und sie kaufen die Papiere über den Markt, der also nicht einfach kurzgeschlossen wird wie bei dem amerikanischen Modell. Und das ist sicher auch richtig – jedenfalls für Europa. Denn hier drohen die Märkte für manche Staatsanleihen ja auszutrocknen, da wäre es fatal, sie sozusagen abzuklemmen. Anders gesagt: Mit Draghis Methode ist es einfacher, irgendwann wieder peu à peu zu einer vernünftigen Staatsfinanzierung zurückzukehren, die Regierungen gewönhen sich nicht daran, einfach Geld bei der Zentralbank, wie am Automaten, zu ziehen.
Draghis Methode des Dopings ist also grundsätzlich weder richtiger noch falscher die amerikanische, aber sie ist den hiesigen Verhältnissen angepasst. Der Mann ist schon ein Profi, keine Frage.
Bleibt natürlich in beiden Fällen die Frage: Wo führt diese Geldschwemme hin? Irgendwann müsste es doch Inflation geben, oder? Sonst könnte sich ja jeder sein Geld drucken, statt arbeiten zu gehen.
Nun, zurzeit ist von Inflation wenig zu spüren, und EIN BISSCHEN mehr Inflation wäre wahrscheinlich sogar ganz praktisch, um die Schuldenkrise besser handhaben zu können. Warum aber haben wir nicht schon längst Inflation? Weil nicht nur die Notenbanken Geld schöpfen, also quasi drucken, sondern das gesamte Finanzsystem: Bei jedem Bankkredit entsteht zusätzliches Buchgeld. Und dieses Finanzsystem ist seit der großen Finanzkrise dabei, seine Verschuldung abzubauen, in Europa noch einmal beschleunigt durch harte Auflagen und Stresstests der europäischen Finanzaufsicht. Die Notenbanken gleichen zurzeit mit ihrer Geldschöpfung vor allem diesen Effekt aus, so dass per saldo gar nicht so viel mehr Liqudität da ist – und deswegen auch keine Inflation.
Aber das kann sich natürlich ändern. Irgendwann sind die privaten Banken genug geschrumpft. Was passiert dann? Theoretisch können die Notenbanken dann jederzeit aufhören Geld zu drucken oder sogar wieder welches eindampfen - zum Beispiel, indem sie Staatsanleihen verkaufen. Dumm läuft es nur, wenn sie aus geldpolitischer Sicht genau an diesen Punkt kommen, die Staaten aber (oder einige Staaten) immer noch so im Schuldensumpf stecken, dass die Notenbanken weiter Doping verabreichen müssen, damit sie zusammenbrechen. An diesem Punkt sind wir noch nicht. Es kann auch sein, dass wir ihn nie erreichen, weil die Schuldenkrise sich schneller auflöst als die Geldpolitik unter Zugzwang gerät. Aber wenn dieser Punkt doch erreicht wird – dann wird die Aufgabe für Draghi und seine Kollegen erst richtig schwierig.
696 Kommentare zu “Doping der anderen Art”
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O.K. I give up. What is your beef with Gutfeld? I think he is hilarious! He is not a serious contributor, but is there for laughs. I like him., Kim Kardashian Sex, 779007, Amanda Bynes Nude, 8[[[, Emmy Rossum Nude, =]]], Teresa Palmer Nude, >:-]]], Jennifer Aniston Naked, :-OO, Meagan Good Naked, nsphus, Natalie Portman Nude, %]]], Rihanna Nude, 10978, Sandra Bullock Nude, :PPP, Demi Moore Naked, 160893, Teresa Palmer Nude, 8-OOO,
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What is really infuriating is his denial that he was attacking the Tea Party. He was “only reading a WSJ article” on the floor of the Senate. Hannity could have done a better job of hammering on THAT giant piece of brazen hypocrisy., Roselyn Sanchez Nude, 36269, Janet Jackson Naked, 045087, Pamela Anderson Sex Video, fuosou, Emma Stone Porn, 8]], Mariah Carey Nude, qxhu, Emma Stone Porn, jeo, Victoria Justice Porn, ydjwse, Kim Kardashian Naked, :-PP, Natalie Martinez Nude, rfujxj, Megan Fox Sex Video, pzou,
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And a belated Happy Easter to you too! The fruit cakes being compared to bricks definitely makes my chuckle list…perhaps some fruity garnish around the display would have added more relevance. It is quite strange how the human mind works, and association is key to avoid possible misyunderstandings like this one! Classic!, Vanessa Angel Nude, 788, Minka Kelly Nude, :]], Kelly Kelly Nude, taehuy, Tea Leoni Nude, 350398, Jenny Mccarthy Porn, vnjcth, Priyanka Chopra Nude, >:-DDD, Anne Hathaway Naked, kzed, Dakota Fanning Nude, dsjxns, Marisa Miller Naked, %DDD, Victoria Justice Porn, >:DDD,
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It would also make it a lot harder for bullying to take place, since anyone stupid enough to try it would be taking on a potentially even bigger community, as well as whoever happened to be hosting you. (Anyone who did host would have your back 100% and be able to manage comment moderation and such so you’d never even have to see the garbage.), Lauren Holly Nude, qcy, Avril Lavigne Nude, 954558, Katrina Kaif Sex, iirc, Mila Kunis Nude, pzof, Mariah Carey Naked, 608, Kristin Chenoweth Nude, %-OOO, Lindsay Lohan Sex Tape, :-DDD, Vanessa Angel Nude, 089087, Natalie Martinez Nude, cbv, Emily Osment Naked, %],
I always wondered if the Manchurian Candidate
Use your passion and geek expertise to liberate the latent creativity that resides in readers, something that works better than the linear, sequential and fast fading stream of comments (yeah, this is recursive). Comments are writing, but lets have something not as we know it. Writing in this box just feel a little klunky, there must be a better way, make a better blog :), Emma Watson Sex Tape, %-]]], Scarlett Johansson Sex Tape, :-(((, Anne Hathaway Naked, :-P, Lindsay Lohan Sex Video, 26050, Pamela Anderson Sex Video, 08818, Demi Moore Bush, >:-OOO, Jessica Biel Naked, 324011, Jenny Mccarthy Naked, %-(, Rihanna Porn, 0355, Emma Watson Nude, 670254, Demi Moore Naked, oxui, Miranda Cosgrove Nude, 4422, Alyssa Milano Naked, 865,
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And a belated Happy Easter to you too! The fruit cakes being compared to bricks definitely makes my chuckle list…perhaps some fruity garnish around the display would have added more relevance. It is quite strange how the human mind works, and association is key to avoid possible misyunderstandings like this one! Classic!, Sunny Leone Nude, >:)), Jennifer Lopez Porn, twd, Eva Mendes Nude, 01424, Demi Moore Bush, 938, Holly Madison Nude, >:]], Victoria Justice Naked, 5135, Lauren Holly Nude, >:]], Sandra Bullock Nude, 123493, Vanessa Minnillo Nude, 8919, Megan Fox Sex Video, %PPP, Hayden Panettiere Nude, lmwn, Megan Fox Nude, 06279, Kristen Bell Naked, gmhbu, Mila Kunis Naked, fjy,
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I understand. That is why I made the point about the state caucus to come up with acceptable Presidential candidates. My fear is we have too many conservatives that may split our vote and let a Romney, Christie get in., Kendra Wilkinson Sex Tape, rmwri, Sunny Leone Nude, ywvxq, Olivia Wilde Naked, >:-), Katrina Bowden Nude, 375411, Sofia Vergara Nude, 664391, Kendra Wilkinson Sex Tape, qou, Vanessa Angel Nude, wppwh, Megan Fox Pussy, =-[[[, Yvonne Strahovski Nude, =(, Kaley Cuoco Porn, =(((, Kim Kardashian Nude, >:PPP, Jenny Mccarthy Playboy, 142135,
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It’s entirely possible that I copied that individual number across incorrectly (and that the index was correct), but when I did the query just then it returned a Technorati Rank of 37, so as you say there would be no change in the rank, but an improvement in your index., Kim Kardashian Sex Scene, 774843, Julia Roberts Naked, vaiz, Natalie Portman Nude, >:-((, Jenny Mccarthy Playboy, ebovsr, Kareena Kapoor Nude, :-[[, Meryl Streep Nude, =]]], Meagan Good Naked, %P, Selena Gomez Pussy, 21001, Leighton Meester Sex Tape, 94641, Marisa Tomei Nude, 945,
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I always wondered if the Manchurian Candidate
It would also make it a lot harder for bullying to take place, since anyone stupid enough to try it would be taking on a potentially even bigger community, as well as whoever happened to be hosting you. (Anyone who did host would have your back 100% and be able to manage comment moderation and such so you’d never even have to see the garbage.), Eva Mendes Naked, 698998, Jennifer Morrison Nude, ybxntv, Dakota Fanning Naked, 637046, Eva Mendes Nude, syzuqf, Kourtney Kardashian Naked, 92358, Lyndsy Fonseca Nude, =-DDD, Emma Watson Nude, %[[[, Yvonne Strahovski Nude, 8-DDD, Emma Watson Fakes, 61058, Hilary Duff Nude, 09793, Holly Madison Naked, mur, Jennifer Aniston Naked, 08385,
Kathy, the content you have graciously shared with us every once in a while is both inspiring and entertaining. And a blog is the perfect medium for this. A lot of the content is about your style and creative personality. Thus, I would rule out the community-based ideas. I would probably only read your stuff anyway., Rachel Bilson Naked, 972510, Kim Kardashian Porn, mqpp, Demi Lovato Naked, fkuy, Emma Watson Sex, 8DDD, Victoria Justice Porn, 62178, Christina Hendricks Naked, 542484, Kendra Wilkinson Sex Tape, 4328, Olivia Wilde Naked, >:O, Alessandra Ambrosio Nude, 859, Jane Fonda Nude, tsg,
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Honestly said, I don’t think you can do anything to fend off the attacks. I don’t think you got attacked because of something you did, but because lots of people admire you and your work. That’s apparently enough for some people to hate you. Only by unpassionating your readers, can you hope to actually stop the haters. I hope you will reject that option., Megan Fox Naked, zdwqil, Anna Nicole Smith Nude, vwh, Julia Roberts Naked, 123, Claudia Black Nude, 8((, Debby Ryan Naked, 923, Natalie Portman Nude, huqr, Rihanna Nude Pics, %D, Jennifer Garner Nude, 8174, Zac Efron Naked, oipa, Emily Osment Naked, 8], Emma Watson Nude, 93467, Kate Bosworth Nude, >:D, Kim Kardashian Tits, :O,
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O.K. I give up. What is your beef with Gutfeld? I think he is hilarious! He is not a serious contributor, but is there for laughs. I like him., Emma Watson Sex, 62273, Selena Gomez Sex Tape, =P, Tila Tequila Sex Tape, :PP, Jennette Mccurdy Porn, lhs, Kathy Griffin Nude, 827842, Eva Longoria Naked, 158638, Victoria Justice Nude, 8-OOO, Christina Hendricks Naked, 8-))), Emma Watson Sex Tape, :-], Sophia Bush Nude, 133, Cameron Diaz Naked, wyttxw, Christina Aguilera Naked, qqz, Kim Kardashian Nude, 10871, Jane Fonda Nude, >:-[[,
ould also do your (wonderful) thing around the blogosphere for a while (just not always here). Keep the juices flowing, continue to help people, foster even greater community growth, and not be an (ugh) static single target., Kourtney Kardashian Nude, dmkuk, Summer Glau Nude, tfzhlq, Hilary Duff Nude, ndbdv, Reese Witherspoon Naked, 8679, Raquel Welch Nude, >:))), Katrina Kaif Sex, 8OOO, Priyanka Chopra Nude, :-[[, Jenna Elfman Nude, 33301, Jennifer Aniston Naked, 542881, Elle Macpherson Nude, 61680, Kim Kardashian Pussy, pzg, Mila Kunis Naked, :-]], Kristin Chenoweth Nude, uxo, Megan Fox Pussy, 1740,
Take me for example. I could support Bachman, Cain, Palin, or Santorum. in no particular order. Others would choose fewer plus Paul., Selena Gomez Fakes, fpnphi, Aishwarya Rai Sex, 505, Mariah Carey Sex Tape, >:-), Emma Watson Fakes, qznn, Victoria Justice Nude, 500, Jennifer Lopez Porn, 56309, Brenda Song Nude, %(((, Megan Fox Sex Scene, 29827, Debby Ryan Porn, 8PPP, Vanessa Hudgens Nude Pics, 015401,
I think greater interaction among groups would result (mix up the tech bloggers and the marketers and the VCs and the usability people and, hell, even the sex bloggers) ;) and really spark some awesome conversations., Michelle Ryan Nude, >:-OOO, Emily Osment Nude, %-]]], Demi Moore Naked, psg, Kendra Wilkinson Sex Tape, 573246, Anna Faris Naked, 69900, Victoria Justice Naked, igvs, Vanessa Hudgens Sex Tape, 464478, Kelly Kelly Nude, 8-PP, Meryl Streep Nude, gbtqz, Rihanna Nude Pics, mbudvl,
Only reason I voted for him was SARAH. I wasn’t even going to vote until he picked her. I had voted in every election since the late 1960?s., Meagan Good Naked, 839803, Vida Guerra Nude, iveq, Tia Carrere Nude, ujarx, Michelle Rodriguez Naked, :PP, Miranda Cosgrove Porn, ifx, Janet Jackson Naked, =-PPP, Jennifer Lopez Nude, uyi, Rihanna Nude Pics, hihu, Natalie Martinez Nude, fwr, Emma Roberts Naked, :PPP, Kim Kardashian Naked, rvpbfj,
I see two basic options for you: Reduce visibility and do something completely different, or stay visible and continue publishing your own stuff under your own name. All the options you cite can be assigned to one of these two categories. I dearly hope you go with the second option, even though I would totally understand if you decide otherwise., Victoria Justice Naked, 019, Brittany Murphy Nude, 8-[, Selena Gomez Sex Tape, 43387, Amy Smart Nude, 8-PPP, Cameron Diaz Sex Tape, %[, Shakira Sex Tape, 8(, Christina Ricci Nude, =PP, Molly Sims Nude, 8PPP, Chyna Porn, :-PPP, Christina Aguilera Naked, %OOO,
In doing this blog and thinking about this stuff, have you ever had any ideas for what kinds of tools (software, that is) that people could use to do things like share creative ideas in groups, create customer community, etc. etc.?, Selena Gomez Fakes, %-((, Torrie Wilson Playboy, rztji, Katrina Kaif Nude Pics, 256, Trish Stratus Naked, >:-))), Minka Kelly Nude, >:-[[, Jenny Mccarthy Naked, 035, Zoe Saldana Naked, :(, Christina Hendricks Nude, 8(((, Rihanna Tits, 7807, Tila Tequila Porn, 2438, Cobie Smulders Naked, jlbiyb, Selena Gomez Naked, %-PP, Tea Leoni Nude, kxscm, Torrie Wilson Naked, =]],
I always wondered if the Manchurian Candidate
I do think that by working in a team, it will make it easier for you. The passion moves away from you and to the team of writers, the hate will move with it. Being a part of a groupblog would be a good solution., Alice Eve Naked, %PPP, Torrie Wilson Nude, 14490, Leah Remini Nude, 40966, Katrina Kaif Porn, 8)), Mischa Barton Nude, xdpygt, Salma Hayek Naked, slwb, Rashida Jones Nude, 418479, Kristin Davis Sex Tape, qgulo, Chyna Sex Tape, 6093, Janet Jackson Naked, :DD, Brenda Song Naked, >:))), Lauren Holly Nude, 722, Courtney Love Nude, 35128,
Maybe the private blog is the way to go, though I suspect you’d need some time to get revved up for that. The pod/video angle sounds great, but that raises a lot of other questions. And it loses the immediacy that you enjoyed so long, which is one of the most unfortunate losses in all this., Rihanna Pussy, ykytw, Chyna Porn, udisn, Diane Kruger Nude, =-PPP, Kristen Stewart Nude, aqh, Maria Ozawa Sex Video, 86800, Amber Heard Nude, >:-D, Eva Mendes Porn, 714, Adriana Lima Sex Tape, 319, Kim Kardashian Pussy, >:OO, Scarlett Johansson Porn, xkf, Victoria Justice Nude, 96774, Victoria Justice Nude Pics, dzjkdu, Debby Ryan Porn, 231,